How Twitter Beat the Stock Market

Rebecca Greenfield, at the Atlantic Wire, reports on a hedge fund that took all its advice from Twitter, and beat the stock market:

Not all words or moods reflect the markets ebbs and flows. The algorithm specifically looks at the level of calmness on Twitter explains Jordan. “Their results showed that rises and falls in the number of instances of words related to a calm mood could be used to predict the same moves in the Dow’s closing price between two and six days later, with a fall in these “calm” words being followed by a fall in the index. The other moods did not have the same predictive quality, the paper said.” Specifically, it looks for words like “alert,” “happy,” and “vital,” adds Financial News Michelle Price. “Derwent Capital scans a selected 10% of available tweets at random and will then categorise these messages into one of a range of mood states.”

911 Gets a Digital Upgrade

The 911 emergency service, which has gone from an essential outlet to kind of useless, is making a huge move into the 21st century. Erica Swallow describes:

The plan will enable the transmission of text messages, voice calls, videos and photos, as well as automatic location information. The FCC hopes that such a plan will enable emergency responders to respond faster while also giving individuals more options for contacting 911, depending on the emergency situation.

The Next Big Thing is Already Here

Want to know what’s coming next, what spectacular new technology is going to change everything about everything? Just look around, says Clive Thompson. It’s already out there:

Can this actually be true? Buxton points to exhibit A, the pinch-and-zoom gesture that Apple introduced on the iPhone. It seemed like a bolt out of the blue, but as Buxton notes, computer designer Myron Krueger pioneered the pinch gesture on his experimental Video Place system in 1983. Other engineers began experimenting with it, and companies like Wacom introduced tablets that let designers use a pen and a puck simultaneously to manipulate images onscreen. By the time the iPhone rolled around, “pinch” was a robust, well-understood concept.

A more recent example is the Microsoft Kinect. Sure, the idea of controlling software just by waving your body seems wild and new. But as Buxton says, engineers have long been perfecting motion-sensing for alarm systems and for automatic doors in grocery stores. We’ve been controlling software with our bodies for years, just in a different domain.

Why Are There Viruses?

Gizmodo’s Mat Honan investigates the world of computer viruses, and he finds that not only are there serious financial upsides to viruses and spam, but that there were two distinct products that made computer viruses explode: email, and Windows XP:

Theres also another reason that malware writers have surged: Microsoft Windows XP. That ancient system is, unbelievably, still the most widely used operating system on the planet. Its installed on more than 50 percent of all machines connected to the Internet, and its very insecure.

“XP is the weakest of all systems,” says Hypponen, ” and it is installed on the most computers. Of course you will target that.”

“The source of malware today is 99 percent criminal gangs, and thats a pretty nasty development,” says Hypponen. “We didnt used to have to worry in the real world. But now there are organized criminal gangs, making millions from their attacks. When we shut down their operations, they know who we are.”

Twitter vs. the Times

Jim Maiella, at Brain Matters, looks at the New York Times Twitter page and finds that the accumulated followers of the Times‘ employees adds up to more than 16 times the circulation of the TimesMore interesting, though, is Maiella’s last thought on the subject:

If Justin Bieber, Kim Kardashian and Ashton Kutcher joined forces in a Tweet, it would have about twice the reach of the entirety of The New York Times, and – to steal a line from one of the paper’s commercials – there’s no debating that.

To me, this says one of two things. Either power has completely shifted, to the point where a large following on Twitter makes you more influential than the New York Times just by virtue of the number of eyes that are watching you, or Twitter follower numbers are far from directly correlated with influence. I lean toward the latter, but that might just be because the thought of Ashton Biebdashian being more powerful than the Times makes me want to flee the country.

What do you think? What kind of conclusions can we really draw from Twitter followings?

(Via SplatF)

Where's Education 2.0?

Virginia Heffernan, for the NYT Opinionator blog, looks at the state of education through the eyes of students who have grown up on Facebook, and wonders if they’re being ill-equipped:

When we criticize students for making digital videos instead of reading “Gravity’s Rainbow,” or squabbling on Politico.com instead of watching “The Candidate,” we are blinding ourselves to the world as it is. And then we’re punishing students for our blindness. Those hallowed artifacts — the Thomas Pynchon novel and the Michael Ritchie film — had a place in earlier social environments. While they may one day resurface as relevant, they are now chiefly of interest to cultural historians. But digital video and Web politics are intellectually robust and stimulating, profitable and even pleasurable.

The contemporary American classroom, with its grades and deference to the clock, is an inheritance from the late 19th century. During that period of titanic change, machines suddenly needed to run on time. Individual workers needed to willingly perform discrete operations as opposed to whole jobs. The industrial-era classroom, as a training ground for future factory workers, was retooled to teach tasks, obedience, hierarchy and schedules.

It’s a convincing article, but I particularly liked a commenter’s take:

As noted, the material written for peers was better than the assignments written for the teacher but doesn’t everyone do their best work when they’re doing it for someone they connect with? The argument for collaboration is a big hurdle for traditional education, as what the work world calls sharing, schools call copying or plagiarism. Very few of us work alone: why should school be different, once you master basic individual skills?

When I was in school, I was told over and over that the most important thing I was learning was how to learn. How to work with people, how to tackle something I don’t understand, how to think and act critically and thoughtfully. This collaboration piece, I think, is critical to schools’ success: We need to provide teaching and coaching on how to exist in this ever-more-discursive, crowdsourced, everything-and-everyone-within-reach world. That’s what kids are having to learn themselves, by commenting on Politico or writing blogs for their friends, and what schools seem to try to beat out of them.

God: The First Blogger

It’s a shame there was no blogging software when God was doing his thing, because the world of Internet commenters would have certainly had much to say on the subject. The New Yorker’s Paul Simms imagines a few of them :

Unfocussed. Seems like a mishmash at best. You’ve got creatures that can speak but aren’t smart (parrots). Then, You’ve got creatures that are smart but can’t speak (dolphins, dogs, houseflies). Then, You’ve got man, who is smart and can speak but who can’t fly, breathe underwater, or unhinge his jaws to swallow large prey in one gulp. If it’s supposed to be chaos, then mission accomplished. But it seems more like laziness and bad planning.

There’s imitation, and then there’s homage, and then there’s straight-up idea theft, which is what Your thing appears to be. Anyone who wants to check out the original should go to www.VishnuAndBrahma.com. (And check it out soon, because I think they’re about to go behind a paywall.)

I think God would’ve had a Tumblr, personally. god.tumblr.com is currently being grossly underutilized.

(Via Andrew Sullivan)

The Rise of Computer Chess

Matthew Lasar, for Ars Technica, writes about the parallels of computer chess and computing in general. As the computer got better at chess, it got better at everything:

Bernstein’s program clearly followed Shannon’s “Type B” route. “In order to avoid examining the consequences of all possible moves,” he explained in the article, “a set of decision routines were written which select a small number (not greater than seven) of strategically good moves.”

The author called this array “The Tree.” The computer posited each of these “seven plausible moves,” then asked itself to calculate plausible replies based on eight questions. First: was the king in check? Second: could material be lost, gained, or exchanged? Third: was castling possible? And so on.

Gmail Gets a Preview Pane

FINALLY:

When I check my email, I often rely on the message snippets to figure out which messages to open first. Sometimes, though, I want to see more than snippets, which is why I’m happy to announce that you can now preview messages in your inbox using a new feature in Gmail Labs called Preview Pane. It’s probably a very familiar layout to those of you who have used Gmail on a tablet device. We also think it’s going to work especially well if you have a larger resolution screen.

After you enable Preview Pane from the Labs tab in Gmail Settings you’ll see a toggle button in the top right corner of your message list, which lets you switch between preview and list views.

(Via Steve Rubel)

The Ups and Downs of iPad Video Gaming

Tom Bissell, at Grantland, immerses himself in the wide and wonderful world of iPad games. His insights as a “true” gamer are fascinating, and in two consecutive paragraphs he does a wonderful job of hitting on both the good and the bad of the platform:

Busting through a windshield by tapping your iPad screen is cool, and way more kinesthetically appealing than the blunt-instrument-waving interface system of something like the Wii. Somewhat less cool is getting around the world of Chinatown Wars by using the floaty virtual joystick found in the bottom left-hand corner of the iPad screen. GTA games have always been about moving around and getting in trouble. This is the only GTA game in which moving around guarantees you will get in trouble, because it is impossible to travel 16 feet without killing four pedestrians and plowing into the nearest police car. I am going to go out on a limb here and say that the iPad is not exactly the premiere platform for driving games. That said, Chinatown Wars is absolutely worth playing, if only for its drug-dealing minigame, in which you tool around town meeting junkies and finger-dragging bricks of coke from your briefcase to their duffle bag, and from which I took slightly more pleasure than felt morally comfortable.

Chinatown Wars brought me into first contact with what I am going to call iPad gamings Movement Problem, whereby precision navigation within a given gamespace is complicated by the necessarily imprecise nature of tracing your finger along a touchscreen, which is not helped by the inevitable accumulation of sebaceous oils upon its onyx surface. Mass Effect Galaxy, a spin-off from BioWares acclaimed third-person shooter/sci-fi RPG hybrid Mass Effect, tries valiantly to come to terms with the Movement Problem. Moving the games player-controlled character — Jacob from Mass Effect 2 — is achieved by tipping the iPad one way or another, thereby allowing the simulated momentum to “carry” Jacob across the screen. Keep in mind that while you are doing this you are also trying to shoot and clobber enemies. It is all about as ungainly as it sounds.